International technology group GEA says research in its New Food Frontiers report found at least a quarter of all food could be made from alternative proteins by 2040.
GEA’s New Food Frontiers report examines the potential of alternative proteins to provide food security for the world’s growing population.
Advances in technology and shifts in consumer attitudes are driving start-ups, established companies, and investors to enter an alternative-protein market projected to reach US$290 billion by 2035.
GEA Group CEO Stefan Klebert said, “At GEA, we call this growing array of alternative proteins new food. As a leading provider of machines, know-how and full process lines to the global food and beverage industry, we are at the front lines of today’s new food transformation.
“Our in-depth expertise is helping both start-ups and established companies bring new foods to market by enabling the development and commercial scale production of alternative protein products. This puts us at the centre of a defining moment that will very likely shape the future of nutrition.”
Klebert added GEA's goal with preparing the report was to share the company's perspective and contribute to the growing body of insight and knowledge around alternative proteins.
(23 per cent) expect alternative proteins to
constitute more than 50 per cent of all food
in 2040. (Source: GEA Chef Survey 2022)
GEA said the recent rapid progress of the alternative protein industry has seen plant-based burgers gaining flavour ground on animal protein offerings, while microorganisms are converting biomass into larger volumes of protein for meat and dairy alternatives and other key ingredients.
Cultivated meat has now started moving from the lab to pilot production facilities, and onto a handful of restaurant menus, it said.
The report interviewed thought-leaders, industry experts, and investors, as well as surveying more than 1000 chefs globally. It found broad agreement that the goal of alternative proteins (including plant, cell, and insect-based proteins) is to provide sustainable, healthy, ethical alternatives to conventional meat, fish, eggs and dairy products, as more consumers view the production of these conventional foods as not sustainable.
At the same time, individuals are recognising that their own food choices can have a significant positive impact on the environment and their own health, GEA said.
Key takeaways
A more sustainable food system
As the world population surges towards a projected 10 billion by 2050, the demand for meat and other protein-rich foods is accelerating. Animal agriculture is responding with advances in digitalisation, productivity and overall efficiency to help meet this growing demand.
To feed the world more sustainably in the future, lower impact forms of protein will need to be relied upon.
Alternatives to conventional meat, fish, eggs and dairy are already serving an increasing share of the world’s protein needs, with less impact on climate and the environment. These new foods represent an opportunity to set the world’s food system on a more sustainable, climate-friendly path.
Consumer appeal
Consumers are increasingly attracted to the environmental benefits and ethical aspects of alternative proteins. A growing body of international surveys and academic studies reveals a high level of interest from consumers around the world.
More than 3700 consumers took part in a 2022 survey by impact investor Blue Horizon and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), and more than half considered themselves at least occasional users of alternative proteins. Almost a third (31 per cent) felt that climate concerns, and the ability to have a significant positive impact on the climate, were a primary reason for fully switching to alternative proteins.
According to the Good Food Institute’s (GFI) recent Europe survey, between one-third and two-thirds of consumers in several major European countries expressed their willingness to buy cultivated meat when it becomes available on the market. The younger generation, especially, increasingly recognises food as a choice to affect positive change.
Dr Friederike Grosse-Holz, scientific director at Blue Horizon said every alternative burger or alternative egg purchased by a consumer has both a positive impact and creates returns for the sector.
“We have an amazing opportunity to reduce emissions by transforming the food system, and alternative protein technologies have now matured to the point where they can be scaled.
“At Blue Horizon our goal is to achieve a double positive, which means making a return on investment, as well as a tangible positive impact. Sustainable food is a great way to achieve this double positive,” said Grosse-Holz.
In terms of impact, Blue Horizon looked at three aspects: human, animal, and planetary.
“We are also focused on ways to quantify impact in dollar terms, value the investment on the impact and return side, and maximize the potential for a double positive across returns and impact. For example, when it comes to the planetary impact of the protein transformation, we look at how much emissions are avoided by making the transition to plant-based food,” said Grosse-Holz.
The company then translates the emissions into a dollar value using a carbon price set by the market, generating a financial metric: impact on capital employed (IoCE).
“IoCE works just like a financial return on capital employed (RoCE), and can be determined not just for planetary, but also human and animal impact. Metrics like IoCE allow us to use similar tools to quantify and manage impact and returns,” said Grosse-Holz.
Chefs are transitioning
The GEA Chef Survey on New Food revealed that chefs have already begun making the transition to alternative proteins. The majority are familiar with the various types of alternative proteins and significant numbers are already using them. Well over a third, for example, use meat and dairy alternatives in their daily work to a high extent.
Cultivated meat is not yet commercially available to most chefs, but 41 per cent indicate that they already know a lot about it. Half of chefs predict a strong increase in demand for plant-based proteins in the next 10 years, and nearly half (45 per cent) predict strong growth in demand for cultivated cell-based proteins among their restaurant guests.
Overall, the survey data suggest that many chefs are keenly aware that cultured meat and similar products could redefine how people eat in the future, and see the need to keep up with such a fundamental trend.
Technology is key
The optimism and momentum building behind alternative proteins is largely due to tremendous progress in technology and production know-how over the last several years. At the same time, technology and industrial processes represent a potential bottleneck moving forward.
Alternative proteins will have to be produced on a massive scale to become affordable, which is why the transition to industrial-scale production is in many ways the most critical next phase.
Some of the key steps towards industrial scale production include:
- Plant protein crops engineered for enhanced taste and protein content;
- microorganisms developed for high-efficiency conversion of feedstock into desired products;
- cell lines for cultivation that yield the best, most nutritious end product and in the greatest quantities;
- inexpensive, non-animal cell culture media;
- industrial processes that optimize protein extraction and effectively leverage by-products; and
- smart bioreactors that cater to the needs of cell cultures or microorganisms.
The way forward
The report said that as the alternative protein industry matures, it will rely on support from an increasingly wide range of stakeholders.
The alternative protein industry is currently focused on innovation and efficient industrial processes as the key to achieving scalability, a maturity test, and a factor in realising the full potential of alternative proteins. However, the report states progress is needed in other areas as well. Consumer acceptance and regulatory support are two critical areas that will have to keep pace with technological progress.
With producers focused primarily on innovating and scaling up production, it is critical that governments keep pace by establishing deep expertise in the field and maintaining open lines of communication with all stakeholders.
Challenges ahead
The GFI sees alternative proteins as an essential solution to meet the world’s climate, global health, food security and biodiversity goals, outlined how new players are making an impact and what needs to happen for alternative proteins to fulfill their potential.
GFI corporate engagement manager Carlotte Lucas said that if alternative proteins are to fulfill their potential of reducing emissions and contributing to a more sustainable food system, they need to become as tasty, affordable and accessible as conventional meat.
“GFI’s own research has shown that if plant-based meat is to make up six per cent of the global meat market by 2030, governments and the food industry must make significant investments along the entire supply chain.
“Research to develop protein-rich crop varieties, the construction of 800 or more largescale production facilities, and greater ingredient processing capacity will all be essential to meet demand,” said Lucas.
According to GFI president and founder Bruce Friedrich, there are two milestones for the industry moving forward: five per cent market share, and billions in government support and incentives.
“Alternative proteins reaching 5 percent market share is a critical target for the industry. When new technologies hit a tipping point threshold, that signals the start of mass adoption, moving innovations from alternative to mainstream,” said Friedrich.
To get there, alt protein meals will need to reach parity with conventionally made meat in both taste and price.
GEA Group CEO Stefan Klebert says a world in which sustainability is the key food imperative is a journey worth taking.
“Food not only lends flavour to the world around us, it is also an important part of who we are as individuals and societies. Alternative proteins can play an essential role in making our food system more sustainable and reliable, and that is what gives new foods their particularly bright flavour,” said Klebert.
The full New Food Frontiers: Realising the promise of alternative proteins report is here.
