Australian tech startup, Fair Supply, has developed a world-first supply chain tariff calculator, which the company says is set to transform how businesses understand and respond to the economic fallout of global tariffs.
The combined direct and indirect costs of new and reciprocal tariffs could cost the Australian economy more than $15 billion. Australia’s food and beverage manufacturing sector is expected to face a disproportionate impact from global tariffs, even in the absence of direct duties on Australian exports.
With production processes relying on inputs from over 200 sectors – including critical equipment, specialty ingredients, and high-grade packaging – indirect tariffs imposed on supplier nations such as China, Japan, and the EU could significantly drive up production costs. This is anticipated to reduce already thin net profit margins, placing significant financial pressure on producers.
As the cost of goods sold increases, a rise in retail prices is expected. However, Fair Supply indicates passing these costs on to consumers could prove difficult due to Australia’s highly price-sensitive market and strong resistance from major supermarket chains.
Compounding the challenge, packaging – which already accounts for approximately 20-35 per cent of total product costs – is among the most tariff-exposed elements in the supply chain. Strict regulatory standards and brand quality expectations will further limit the ability to switch to alternative suppliers, making the sector especially vulnerable to ongoing global trade tensions.
According to early modelling by Fair Supply, the combined direct and indirect costs of new and reciprocal tariffs could cost the food and beverage industries more than $765 million.
To support businesses in responding to these challenges, the company has launched a calculator designed for use across all sectors to model supply chain vulnerabilities, quantify tariff risks, and develop contingency strategies.
Fair Supply uses its proprietary engine, that maps over 60 billion global supply chains, to inform the calculator, which calculates cumulative tariff impacts across multiple tiers of international trade. The company sated it is the first tool in the world capable of fully capturing the impact of the ongoing trade war.
Fair Supply co-founder and CTO, Dr Arne Geschke, said the calculator captures the true cost of the tariffs that impact businesses not just at the border but throughout the highly connected global supply chain.
"When secondary and tertiary suppliers are hit with tariffs, the resulting cost increase ripples through international supply chains- inflating costs, distorting pricing, and eroding global competitiveness,” said Geschke.
“Tariffs will be embedded in the DNA of global supply chains; without visibility into those connections, companies are flying blind. While the focus has often been on tariffs applied at point-of-entry, the real damage is further downstream. These indirect costs are frequently invisible to traditional monitoring and are often passed onto Australian businesses with little control over their full supplier ecosystem. Our tool gives businesses the visibility they need to make strategic, informed decisions.”
The calculator tracks how tariffs applied in one country flow through to products and materials that are eventually imported or used in Australia, giving businesses insight into real-time cost fluctuations.
A key feature of the calculator is its ability to help businesses compare the impact of tariffs across different countries, allowing them to make more cost-effective sourcing decisions. By entering the product and country of purchase, users can see where hidden tariff costs add up and explore alternative sourcing options. This makes it easier for companies to compare markets and choose the most cost-effective supplier based on current tariff conditions.
A key differentiator of the calculator is its speed and responsiveness. Unlike static models, this calculator is designed to incorporate the most recent tariff announcements, including reciprocal and retaliatory measures, as they are introduced.
“This real-time recalibration ensures businesses always work with up-to-date insights that reflect current global trade dynamics, enabling users to respond proactively to shifting cost pressures and avoid cost blowouts or procurement disruption,” said Geschke.
The Fair Supply Supply Chain Tariff Calculator is now live, with the free version accessible to the public. A premium version will be offered through a payment plan, providing advanced analytics, reporting tools, integration features, and ESG overlays to support strategic decision-making at the executive level. Businesses can register now for early access or explore enterprise features online at fairsupply.com.
