Food and agriculture as sovereign risk: the rising importance of national resilience
In recent years, there has been growing recognition that food and agriculture should be viewed not solely as economic sectors but as pillars of national resilience and security. The combined pressures of geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, tech vulnerabilities, and climate change are driving broader recognition of sovereign risk in food production and supply chains, placing it alongside traditional domains of national defence and security.
Although Australia is a net food exporter and regarded as one of the most food secure nations in the world, the nation was only ranked 22nd on the Global Food Security Index 2022 due to a lack of a coherent national policy addressing food security. Additionally, despite Australia producing more food than it consumes, food insecurity affects significant portions of the population.
The shifting lens on food security
Historically, food and agriculture have been discussed in the contexts of economic growth, rural development and trade. But a growing awareness of vulnerabilities in global food systems has highlighted the sector’s fragility. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed multiple weaknesses in global supply chains. Shortages of basic commodities and the rapid spread of disruptions through international markets highlighted how dependent many nations are on complex, far-reaching supply networks.
In response, some governments, including Australia, are beginning to treat food and agriculture as matters of sovereign risk, akin to national defence. There’s a deepened understanding that secure food systems are vital for stability and must be insulated from external threats.
The recent inquiry into food security in Australia recommends that "the Australian Government, in consultation and cooperation with State and Territory Governments, relevant industries, sectors and the community, develop a comprehensive National Food Plan providing for the food security, including nutritional security, of the nation and its people."
Drivers of the sovereign risk mindset in food and agriculture
Several factors are influencing this new perspective around food security:
- Pandemic-driven vulnerabilities: the COVID-19 pandemic revealed that disruptions in one part of the world could have immediate ripple effects elsewhere. Shipping delays, factory shutdowns and worker shortages in agriculture led to visible shortages and price hikes. This was a wake-up call to governments, motivating them to seek greater self-sufficiency and resilience in food security - viewing it as a strategic asset rather than just a commodity.
- Geopolitical tensions and global conflicts: recent international conflicts have reinforced the importance of a stable food supply as a matter of national resilience. Trade and supply relationships can be weaponised, potentially cutting off critical resources through tariffs and sanctions. While Australia is a net exporter, it does rely on international markets and supply chains for a range of inputs, such as agricultural chemicals and labour, particularly for seasonal work such as harvesting.
- Technological vulnerabilities in the food supply chain: We only have to cast our minds back to the pandemic to remember how easy it is to incite panic around a compromised food system. Now, Australia faces significant risks from deepfake technology that could influence perceptions of food quality and safety. Deepfake attacks could create falsified videos or audio implicating food producers in unsafe practices, alleging contamination or affected quality. This would not only damage consumer trust but also disrupt exports and harm Australia's standing as a supplier of premium-quality products. Combating such threats requires robust verification systems.
- Climate change and environmental risks: climate change poses long-term risks to food production, with extreme weather events, droughts and changing growing conditions threatening both crop yields and livestock viability. There’s recognition that these climate-related risks to food systems will only increase in severity. Strategies for food security need to be integrated with environmental resilience initiatives.
- Biosecurity hazards: other issues, such as the arrival of Varroa mite on Australia’s shores, as well as outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease and Lumpy Skin Disease in Indonesia, have highlighted biosecurity risks to the national food system.
Food as part of national defence and resilience
There are several measures governments can take to build resilience and protect food systems, from supporting local production and reducing reliance on imports to strengthening domestic supply chains and fortifying critical infrastructure. Strategies include:
- Investing in domestic agriculture: investing in local food production, such as through subsidies for farmers and support for advanced agricultural technologies and new methods, such as alternative proteins and vertical farming, can make countries less vulnerable to international supply disruptions
- Diversifying supply chains: it’s important to diversify the sources of food imports to avoid over-reliance on any single region or trading partner. Governments may also encourage trade policies that support fair, stable, and reliable international food supply channels.
- Enhancing food storage and strategic reserves: maintaining stocks of essential commodities can help prevent food shortages and price spikes during emergencies, providing a buffer while alternative sources are found
- Developing objective technology to prove safety and quality: Developing robust verification systems is critical to protecting Australia’s agricultural sector from digital threats like deepfakes. Beyond traditional cybersecurity protocols, the focus must shift to objective technologies that can actively validate the quality and authenticity of food products. For instance, IoT devices and sensors can monitor and record real-time data on storage conditions or contamination levels. AI-powered technologies are also increasingly being used to objectively measure the quality of food products, offering verifiable proof of product integrity. These advanced systems capture detailed data about the composition and characteristics of locally grown and cultivated produce allowing for accurate assessments of freshness, quality, and safety. By integrating such technologies, the industry can not only defend against misinformation but also enhance consumer trust in Australian food standards.
As the world’s food systems face growing external pressures, the concept of food as a sovereign risk is likely to gain further traction. Just as energy security has long been a focus of national security policy, food security is increasingly seen as a foundation for stability, prosperity and resilience. Increased cross-sector collaboration between agriculture, defence, objective technology and environmental policy will help Australia mitigate threats and ensure sustainable and resilient food systems in future.
